In just two days it will be Friday the 13th — a day many superstitious people feel has ominous undertones. But how does the stock market typically perform on this notoriously spooky day? Below, we take a look at how the S&P 500 Index (SPX) tends to fare on Friday the 13th, and outline 25 stocks for short-term option bulls, if history is any guide, including oil issue Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX).
Before we begin, the results below are simply due to randomness — like many stock market indicators — and should be taken with a grain of salt. Instead, stock and options traders should base their positions on our Expectational Analysis methodology, which takes into account fundamental, technical, and sentiment indicators. But for those of you who’d like to have a little fun, please continue reading. IF YOU DARE.
The Stock Market on Friday the 13th
The last Friday the 13th — in January — resulted in a 0.19% gain for the S&P 500 Index, marking its first win on that day since February 2015. Since 2007, there have been 19 of these days, with the SPX averaging a loss of 0.01%, and ending higher just 52.6% of the time, according to Schaeffer’s Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. That’s compared to an anytime average gain of 0.03%, with a win rate of 54.2%.
However, it’s also worth noting that the last Friday the 13th in the month of October was in 2006, with the index tacking on 2% that day. It’s also worth noting that going back to 1950, the S&P has actually outperformed on Friday the 13th, averaging a gain of 0.07% — about twice its average daily gain of 0.034% — with a higher-than-usual win rate of 57.9%.
Best Stocks to Own on Friday the 13th
Below are the 25 best stocks to own on Friday the 13th, if past is prologue. In order to make the list, the stock had to have at least 10 returns on this day since 2010.
Phillips 66 stock boasts the best win rate, ending eight of the past 10 Friday the 13ths in the black. What’s more, PSX has averaged a gain of 1.86% on this day — nearly twice the runner-up. No other stock on our list even averages a gain of 1.00%.
PSX shares have added roughly 21.3% in the past six months, and notched a record high of $94.69 just one week ago. At last check, the stock was up 0.4% on the day, trading at $93.85. Another 1.86% jump on this Friday the 13th would place Phillips 66 stock around $95.60 — well into all-time-high territory.
Traders who want to bank on more short-term upside for PSX will be pleased to find the oil stock’s Schaeffer’s Volatility Index (SVI) at 14% — in just the second percentile of its annual range. This indicates that Phillips 66’s short-term options are pricing in relatively muted volatility expectations. Currently, the at-the-money weekly 10/13 94-strike call is being asked at $0.45, making breakeven on the trade — which expires at Friday’s close — $94.45.
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